Dr. Jennifer Dumas teaches political science at the University of Louisiana Monroe. Her area of expertise is political violence. Dumas weighs in on the recent war against Iran.
On not being surprised by the U.S. and Israel attacking Iran
We had some strong signals coming ahead of time, including the assets we [the U.S.] moved into the region and the political rhetoric coming from the White House. It does appear that the attacks caught Iran and U.S. allies by surprise.
Many thought that attacking Iran would be too big a gamble, given the impact that the conflict has had on oil markets. Also, the differing goals that the U.S. and Israel have. We were in the middle of negotiations with Iran. The U.S. was not very happy about where the negotiations were going, but they still came to the table.
On why this war is different
Its too early to say how this war will be different from others with the Middle East. I do see immediate differences. We're partnered with Israel instead of our usual European allies. There's been some pretty heated discussions with the U.S. and traditional allies over the outcome of this war.
The goal of the United States in this conflict remains ambiguous; it varies depending on who you ask. Israel is focused on regime change in Iran. We are not on the same page.
On the concerted effort to take out Iran's leadership
It is a bit unprecedented that we would go in with that strategy. This is motivated by the success in Venezuela when President Maduro and his wife were apprehended. There was a census that we could do something similar in Iran.
On what changes occurred in the White House that led to this situation
I think this is a broader trend of setting aside the usual precedent in American formal policy and international laws. It's also a strategic thing. If we carry out this successfully, this could be our best chance without putting boots on the ground.
On the impact this war will have on the balance of power and trade in the Middle East
It really depends on where things go from here; we don't know. I think this will be a war of attrition for Iran. They view that, if they wait this out, they can retain some power. Their image has taken a hit due to the conflict. Iran was seen as a haven for travel and foreign investment.
On how the Middle is taking the news
Our Gulf allies were not enthusiastic. None of them wants a nuclear-powered Iran. The reality that Iran is holding its own in the war highlights the uncertainty of this conflict and what the next regime will be as it progresses.
On the reasons the U.S. is targeting Iran at this moment
We are uncertain as to why we did not take action earlier. The reasons for its occurrence at this moment remain ambiguous, as does the ultimate objective of the conflict.
On the effect the war will have on our allies
They are being reluctantly pulled into this. The UK was reluctant to provide its bases to the U.S., but it had to change its stance as the war expanded. France has been directly pulled into the war by Lebanon. Turkey has experienced attacks on its own territory. Our allies are being pulled in.
On the issue of the Kurds
You can see some of the shifting tactics and dynamics. In just a few days, we want them to be involved, and then we don't. It's the fog of war, and we're just trying to figure this out.
