JOEL ROSE, HOST:
Most Iowa voters have backed President Trump in the past three presidential elections. But this year, Republicans there are locked in competitive races. And now, faced with strong challenges from Democrats, Iowa could help determine the balance of power in Congress, particularly in the U.S. Senate where longtime GOP Senator Joni Ernst is retiring. Iowa Public Radio's Natalie Krebs reports.
NATALIE KREBS, BYLINE: It's early in the morning at a restaurant in suburban Des Moines. Republican Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is on a bus tour across Iowa. She's trying to rally votes with less than three weeks left to Election Day. Hinson lays out the stakes to a room full of supporters sipping coffee. If she doesn't win, Republicans could lose the U.S. Senate.
ASHLEY HINSON: They are throwing everything they can here at Iowa. It's one of the most competitive U.S. Senate seats in the country, and they're doing that because this is about control of the Senate, right? This could be seat No. 5 in the balance of power.
KREBS: For years, Hinson has been a rising star in Iowa politics. The former TV journalist was first elected to the Iowa House in 2016. She then flipped her Eastern Iowa congressional seat in 2020, but she's facing a competitive race against Democrat Josh Turek. He's a state representative from Western Iowa and former Paralympian who calls himself a prairie populist. Recent polling data shows Hinson is neck and neck with Turek in a toss-up race that's now considered one of the most competitive in the nation.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: What the real danger for Representative Hinson is at this juncture is Trump continues to be unpopular. The war in Iran continues to be unpopular and, you know, isn't going away.
KREBS: Hinson has long positioned herself as a strong ally of Trump. But during a debate on Iowa PBS this month, Hinson said she can still support Trump in Congress while pursuing bipartisan policies.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
HINSON: I'll be President Trump's ally when it is important for Iowa, but I will push back on him - he knows this 'cause I talk to him regularly - on things that are wrong for our state, and that's true no matter who's in the White House.
KREBS: Last month, Hinson voted against a Democratic-backed resolution limiting Trump's powers in Iran but, just days later, called for an immediate and successful end to the war in Iran in a post on X. Her opponent, Turek, accused her on Iowa Public Radio of changing her position on ending the war to boost her chances of winning the election.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR CONTENT)
JOSH TUREK: I think that Representative Hinson maybe ended up looking at some polls and finally decided to change, but it's easy to send out a tweet. It's much, much harder to actually step up and do something about it. Iowans are upset. We need an end to this war.
KREBS: When it comes to Iowa voter registration numbers, they favor Hinson. Active Republican voters make up the largest category, followed by no party votersthen registered Democrats. Back at Hinson's event in suburban Des Moines, Kathy Jenkins, a registered Republican, says she likes that Hinson is personable and has supported legislation like the Trump-backed One Big Beautiful Bill, which eliminated taxes on tips and overtime.
KATHY JENKINS: I work in the medical field, so the no tax on tips, no tax on overtime has affected me tremendously. Last year, I had to pay in. This year, I didn't have to pay in so much.
KREBS: But Desi McDonough, a nurse in Ottumwa, says she's voting for Turek. She says Hinson's vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill will reduce millions of Medicaid funding to rural communities like hers.
DESI MCDONOUGH: I believe that she will blindly follow her entire party, will blindly follow these men that are in power that are not protecting the most vulnerable, and that should be our job.
KREBS: Early voting in Iowa started this week. For NPR News, I'm Natalie Krebs in Des Moines.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.