Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Helene, located over the eastern Atlantic, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the area of disturbed weather located over the extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Ship reports indicate that this system is producing strong gusty winds over the Yucatan Channel. Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by Thursday night while the disturbance moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. If necessary, an Air Force Reconnaissance plane will investigate the system tomorrow.
Interests across northeastern Mexico and the coasts of Texas and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected to continue over western Cuba and portions of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
2. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form along a trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are conducive for some development, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.